Are We There Yet?

Recently I finished “The Final Days” by Woodward and Bernstein(All the President’s Men) telling of President Nixon’s final days in office in the summer of 74. I could not help but draw parallels and perhaps some lessons to be learned in today’s current political climate. After Robert Mueller’s testimony more democrats came to support impeachment. Some gave the estimate to be about 107 in the House of Representatives which represents about half the Democratic caucus. Although this is a significant amount it is still not enough to impeach. 

I believe there certain thresholds have not been reached yet and two in particular come to mind,  a smoking gun and congressional support (or lack of depending on viewpoint). I don’t believe we have reached either of these despite the already strong case against President Trump. 

In Nixon’s case it was the fatal tape of June 23, 1972 of him and Halderman(Chief of Staff) formulating a plan to have the CIA interfere with the FBI’s investigation in the Watergate burglaries of the DNC the week before. This clearly showed obstruction of justice and that he had been lying since then (about two years) about his knowledge of this happening. Nixon had been fighting a losing battle against releasing this and other tapes for quite some time until the Supreme Court decided unanimously he had to release them. 

I think may thought the Mueller Report would be the smoking gun but it has not been. Although it shows a lot of behavior and actions were deplorable an undeniable smoking gun was not found. A smoking gun is more or less something that is an agreed upon event or item. That threshold has not been met. 

That brings us to the second part, congressional support. Nixon’s Impeachment only became imminent because his congressional support had severely eroded by the summer of 74. Even before the release of the smoking gun tape Articles of Impeachment had already been voted on and passed by the House side of Congress. The only this that held in question was the Senate where it would need a two thirds majority to remove the President. The final nail in the coffin was when Congressional leaders, including conservative icon Senator Barry Goldwater, met with Nixon to inform him of how few still supported him he’d likely be removed from office if Impeachment went thru its full process.

Fast forward to today only about half the Democratic caucus support impeachment at this time in the House of Representatives. Obviously with Senator Mitch McConnell’s tight grip in the Senate they would never convict Donald Trump should it even get that far.

This means we are not anywhere near impeachment as of this writing. Speaker Nancy Pelosi is obviously aware of this too. Investigations are continuing despite blockages from the White House. A break thru or “smoking gun” may appear at any moment. It’s tempting to rush but even Nixon’s downfall came after two years after the ill-fated Watergate burglary. We are just into the 8^th month of Democratic’s controlling the House. Investigations take time.  Given Trump perchance for laziness and incompetence it’s more than likely to find more glaring examples of corruption at some point. The Resistance must be patient.